How to Win

Whether you are a newcomer to sports betting or a long time sports investor, we hope that the following guide can give you a good summary of basic concepts that can improve your win rates and also explain how to make the best use of your picks at MMSPicks.com

Managing your bankroll will be every bit as important to your success as a sports bettor as your ability to find winners. The majority of professional bettors wager on average 1% of their bankroll per bet. If you are very confident in your edge you can get more aggressive and wager up to 1 1/2%-2% of your bankroll on a single play. If your bankroll can be replaced you can be more aggressive. If it can’t you should tend to be more conservative. Betting 1% would make your bankroll 100 units. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with being conservative and using 1/2% units or a 200 unit bankroll.  We tend to release more picks than most people initially are used to.  Keeping your unit size smaller will probably help you sleep a little better at night. 

We bet straight bets. And then more straight bets. Our strategy for teasers is – We don’t bet teasers. Our strategy for parlays is – We don’t bet parlays. Same thing goes for any of the other exotic bets the sportsbooks offer. Just stay away. Straight bets get the job done. The sportsbooks are constantly coming up with new ways to convince you to bet more.  Generally the more exotic the bet the higher the house edge.

The easiest way to destroy your bankroll is to walk into the casino and start gambling on anything where the casino has the advantage. Craps, Blackjack, Slot machines etc. When we walk into the casino we go straight to the sportsbook and straight back out the door. Losing is easy. It’s winning that’s hard. What’s the point in gaining an edge over the house if you’re just going to turn around and give it away?

If you want the best results you have to get the best numbers. Giving yourself access to multiple sets of lines can easily allow you to gain a half point to a full point or more on most MMS plays. Line shopping can be helped considerably by using a live odds service. We personally use the Don Best service. This simple practice will significantly improve your long term results.

We are Las Vegas based so our line shopping is all through the legal Nevada based sportsbooks. There’s actually only 14 different sportsbooks as listed below.  Each group of casinos share the same lines. We’ve listed links to each book’s’ mobile betting app if they have one. If you’re looking to make larger wagers without the casinos noticing you there’s no reason you can’t make the same wager at multiple books.  That would’ve been time consuming in the past. With the mobile apps it only takes a minute.  Different books have different limits on different bets but they’ll all take $500 on almost anything.

  1. CG Technology (Cantor): M, Venetian, Palazzo, Hard Rock, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan, Palms, & Silverton (Silverton doesn’t have NHL).  Mobile Sports App.
  2. Stations: Red Rock, Green Valley Ranch, Texas Station, Palace Station, Boulder Station, Sunset Station, Santa Fe Station, Wild Wild West and a bunch of small local casinos. They do an insane amount of handle for a local casino. Mobile Sports App.
  3. Boyd/Coast: Orleans, Gold Coast, Aliante, Sam’s Town, Fremont, California, Suncoast, Cannery, Eastside Cannery & Joker’s Wild. Mobile Sports App.
  4. Westgate: Independent. Mobile Sports App.
  5. NV Sportsbook: South Point & Rampart.  Probably the best book in town for NFL because they don’t adjust prices, only point spreads. Mobile Sports App.
  6. William Hill: Hooter’s, Binion’s, The D, Ellis Island & pretty much every other small casino in the state. Mobile Sports App.
  7. Wynn: Wynn & Encore. Mobile Sports App.
  8. MGM: MGM, Aria, Bellagio, Mirage, Mandalay Bay, Luxor, Excalibur, Circus Circus, Monte Carlo & New York-New York. They’re so big yet so scared… Mobile Sports App.
  9. Treasure Island: Independent. One of the few books to actually reflect an opinion in their lines.  They’ll be out by themselves quite often. They launched the app in 2015 only to shut it down a few months later only to reopen it in 2016.  A definite must have out. Mobile Sports App.
  10. Golden Nugget: Independent. Great book. Mobile Sports App.
  11. Caesars: Caesars, Planet Hollywood, Rio, Flamingo, The Quad, Harrah’s, Paris, Bally’s, Cromwell.
  12. Stratosphere: Stratosphere, Arizona Charlie’s on Boulder and Decatur.
  13. Peppermill: Reno. Reno numbers can vary wildly from Las Vegas. The app works the same in Las Vegas as it does in Reno. Mobile Sports App.
  14. Atlantis: Reno. Southwest flies non-stop daily Las Vegas to Reno. Mobile Sports App.

We could include Jerry’s Nugget as #15 but they’re barely even a real book, so No. Also not included is the Carson Valley Inn, another independent book in Minden.

Have a long-term focus. Yes, we know; “long term” is boring. The reality is that if you are planning to bet the rent money on your “Lock of the Century”, we wish you the best of luck but we are nearly certain it is not going to end well.

The only proven way to actually be profitable in sports betting is to think like a professional and take the emotion out of your decision making process. You need a very thick skin; remember: even if you are the best handicapper in the world, you are going to lose about 40% of all your picks- no matter how well they are researched and how confident you are. That’s just the nature of the beast. “The right pick” doesn’t always win. If you are not ready for bad days- both emotionally and budget wise-, this could be a very frustrating experience. However, if you have the right mindset, realistic expectations and the proper budget, sports wagering can be enormously fun and financially lucrative.